A recent submission by The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) of England & Wales to the House of Lords EU Select Committee has extensively referred to the analysis undertaken by the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) on the Impacts of Alternative Post-Brexit Trade Arrangements on UK Agriculture.
The NFU’s written evidence was submitted to a House of Lords’ EU Select Committee Inquiry on the potential impacts of no deal on Brexit being reached between the EU and UK1. The NFU submission quoted from the AFBI report in highlighting the differing sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of possible future trading relationships between the UK and the EU and highlighted the need for transitional arrangements to provide farmers more time to plan for new trade arrangements.
The AFBI report provided quantitative estimates of the impacts on farm commodity prices and production of three possible post-Brexit trade scenarios: a “soft Brexit” bespoke free trade agreement with the EU and two “hard Brexit” options, a WTO Default scenario with high tariffs applied to trade between the UK and EU and a Trade Liberalisation scenario with zero tariffs applied to imports to the UK2.
AFBI economists are currently undertaking further analysis on the impact of Brexit on UK agriculture in conjunction with researchers at Newcastle University and Scotland’s Rural College.