FAPRI EU and UK Baseline Briefing Book 2016

Date published: 01 August 2017

The Baseline projections that are presented here are generated as part of the FAPRI-UK project.

The Baseline serves as a yardstick against which to compare future policy scenarios and as such should not be interpreted as a forecast.



Contact authors are:

Julian Binfield  binfieldj@missouri.edu

John Davis  John.Davis@afbini.gov.uk

Myles Patton  Myles.Patton@afbini.gov.uk and

Siyi Feng    Siyi.Feng@afbini.gov.uk

The 2016 Baseline

This Baseline was simulated in Spring 2016 using data that was available at that time. Macroeconomic projections are from IHS Global Insight from December as this was when the FAPRI-MU baseline was undertaken which provides the world prices. Historical data for biofuels are from Strategie Grains and Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) Statistics by Department of Transport (UK). Agricultural sector data is taken from EUROSTAT, European Commission, Strategie Grains, COCERAL, and the USDA’s PS and D database from that available early in 2016. For the most part the figures for 2015 are projections as official statistics were not available at the time of generating the baseline. Where possible these have been calibrated based on available information. Unless otherwise stated, comparisons during the projection period are made between 2015 and 2025.