Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Markets: FAPRI-UK Project

This UK-wide project has developed a comprehensive partial equilibrium model that captures the dynamic inter-relationships between the variables that impact on supply and demand in the main agricultural sectors of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.  FAPRI-Northern Ireland began in 1997 and was replaced by FAPRI-UK in 2005.

The dairy, beef, sheep, pig, poultry, wheat, barley, oats, rapeseed and biofuel sectors are examined through sub-models which are designed to generate projections of agricultural activity - production, trade, prices and consumption – all key pieces of information needed by decision makers to assess the impacts of policy changes. 

The FAPRI-UK modelling system is incorporated within an EU-wide modelling system [FAPRI-Missouri’s EU grain, oilseed, livestock and dairy (GOLD) model] and thereby captures interactions with EU and world markets.

Agricultural and trade policies are modelled in explicit detail so that realistic policy impact analyses can be conducted. The models have been used to assess the implications of CAP reforms and WTO negotiation proposals, including export subsidy elimination and increased market access. 

Most recently, the models have been updated to account for the fact that in the case of Brexit the UK and EU markets would no longer be fully integrated to enable scenario analysis of the impact of alternative trade agreements to be undertaken.

Partners

  • FAPRI at the University of Missouri
  • The FAPRI-Ireland team within Teagasc

Funded by

  • DAERA
  • Defra
  • Welsh government
  • Scottish government

Publications

FAPRI publications listed here