Reduction in UK meat and dairy consumption would not see immediate drop in production, AFBI research finds
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Lower meat and dairy consumption in the UK would not automatically equate to farmers reducing their production levels, according to new research by the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI).
AFBI economists examined how changes in diet could affect UK production, prices, trade flows, greenhouse gas emissions and soil nutrient balances.
Researchers tested three diet-change scenarios: a shift towards the official healthy eating guidelines, a 30% reduction in beef, lamb and dairy consumption, and a 10% reduction in meat and dairy intake.
Each scenario was run for the UK alone, and for the UK and EU.
The results showed that trade had a significant impact on the results.
If UK consumers alone cut their meat and dairy intake, leading to reduced domestic demand, export markets could absorb some of the produce which was no longer consumed in the UK.
The change would mean that production levels would fall by less than consumption.
However, if EU consumers followed similar, though smaller, diet changes there would be fewer opportunities to export UK produce, which could have an effect on production.
Food Sectors
The research also highlighted differences between different food sectors.
Prices for crops like wheat, barley and oilseed rape are driven by international markets, so changes in what people in the UK eat will only have a small effect on how much of these crops UK farmers grow.
Products like potatoes and eggs, which are mainly bought and sold within the UK, are more affected by changes in consumer demand. If people buy more of these products, prices are more likely to rise and producers are more likely to increase production.
Environmental improvements
The study found that diet changes led to some environmental improvements.
Across the modelled scenarios, UK production-based greenhouse gas emissions fell by between 5% to 17% of the reference level, while consumption-based emissions fell by between 6% to 26%, depending on the diet change, trade response and emissions intensity of imports.
The largest reduction in consumption emissions came from the scenario where beef, lamb and dairy were reduced by 30%. In this scenario, emissions were 21% to 25% lower than the reference case.
However, some of that benefit could be offset if consumers eat more pork and chicken, particularly where production becomes locally concentrated.
The analysis found that diet change led to modest improvements in national nitrogen and phosphorus balances.
Dr Erin Sherry, AFBI Principal Agricultural Economist
Lead author Dr Erin Sherry said: “The main message is that changes in UK diets need to be understood in the context of international agricultural markets.
“Agricultural markets are connected through trade, so the impact of lower UK demand depends on what happens in other countries as well.
“If UK consumers eat less meat and dairy, domestic production may not fall by the same amount because products can move into export markets.
“But if trading partners move in the same direction, the market signal to producers becomes stronger.
“For farmers and policy makers, that means dietary transition needs to be considered alongside trade, land use, technology and nutrient management.
“Diet change can contribute to lower emissions and improved nutrient balances, if adopted in the UK along with countries who trade with the UK, but it is not a stand-alone solution.”
The findings are particularly relevant for agricultural sectors exposed to changing consumer preferences, climate policy and international market conditions.
The findings suggest that future policy will need to balance environmental ambition with market realities, including the risk that emissions savings are diluted if production or sourcing shifts elsewhere.
The study formed part of the UK Research and Innovation-funded project, Realigning UK Food Production and Trade for Transition to Healthy and Sustainable Diets.
The study used the FAPRI-UK model, run with an EU agricultural market model, to simulate ten-year changes in consumption, production, trade, prices, greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus balances.
The research was first published in the Journal of Cleaner Production in an article entitled “Environmental and trade implications of alternative diet scenarios for the United Kingdom”.